The market is slowly shifting its focus from inflation to growth. I think yesterday will ultimately mark the turning point as CPI was softer while retail sales sank.
Today’s slate was a mixed bag but mostly underscored softness. Initial jobless claims at 222K were fractionally higher than the 220K consensus but fell 10K from the week before and are still at a historically-low level.
Housing starts and the Philly Fed both missed estimates while import/exports prices were higher than anticipated.
Fed rate cut pricing moved down slightly and Treasury yields rose. US 2-year yields are up 3.0 basis points on the day.
US 2s
USD/JPY has tracked the move in yields and is up 31 pips to a session high a 155.21.
I find it hard to tie the market moves to the economic data and think this be more about position squaring and the market taking a breather. S&P 500 futures are flat.
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