Goldman Sachs still thinks a July rate cut is more likley

Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius was on CNBC and said this:

• I’m pretty confident the wage trend is down
• If we look at other indications like the Atlanta tracker, wage trend is down
• I do expect ‘much better’ PCE numbers in the second quarter
• A July cut is still a reasonable baseline, it’s still more likely in our view

I often write that when an economist says ‘still’ it means that he’s lost confidence. That’s not a big surprise seeing as Goldman Sachs is way out of consensus on a July rate cut.

That said, they’re crunching the numbers and the comments about wages and PCE are what matters in the bigger picture more than if Fed cuts come in July, Sept or November.