The euro is threatening a breakout. The pair is testing a pair of highs made in April and May. If it can get through them, it would be trading at the highest level in a year.
EURCHF daily
The market is reflecting a slowly-improving economy in Europe and the Swiss National Bank being at the leading edge of rate cuts.
More and more, the market is signalling a return to pre-pandemic norms around inflation and growth. That wasn’t exactly a blockbuster economic environment in Europe but low rates in the eurozone would mean even-lower rates in Switzerland and the carry trades that go along with it.
The pair was trading at 1.08 before the pandemic and that looks like a stretch but a rise above parity is certainly possible as the eurozone economy stabiliizes and money trickles out of Switzerland in an improving global economy.
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