📈 What the data show
Real GDP in Canada grew 0.2 % month-over-month in July 2025, after a −0.1 % decline in June. Statistics Canada+1
The rebound was driven primarily by the goods-producing industries, which expanded by 0.6 %. Statistics Canada
Among goods, the mining, quarrying, and oil & gas extraction sector led the uptick (↑ 1.4 %). Statistics Canada
Manufacturing also rose (↑ 0.7 %) in July, helping offset weakness in June. Statistics Canada+2TD Economics+2
On the services side, growth was milder (≈ +0.1 %), supported by gains in wholesale trade, transportation & warehousing, and real estate / rental & leasing. Statistics Canada+2TD Economics+2
Some sectors weighed on growth: retail trade declined (~ −1.0 %) and parts of “information & cultural services” also saw weakness. Statistics Canada+2TD Economics+2
For August, the advance estimate suggests GDP was “essentially unchanged” (i.e. flat). Statistics Canada
🔍 What this means / key takeaways
External factors (global demand, commodity prices, trade policies, U.S. tariffs) remain significant risks. Global News+4S&P Global+4Mortgage Professional+4
Back from contraction — but fragile footing
July’s +0.2 % marks the first positive monthly growth after several months of weakness. It’s a modest rebound, not a strong turnaround, and underlying momentum appears fragile. Mortgage Professional+3Global News+3TD Economics+3
Trade-exposed sectors remain volatile
The rebound leaned heavily on mining, oil & gas, and manufacturing — sectors often sensitive to external demand, commodity prices, and trade policies. That suggests vulnerability if global demand softens or trade frictions increase. Global News+3Statistics Canada+3TD Economics+3
Interest rate / monetary policy implications
The better-than-expected July print is likely to temper urgency for aggressive rate cuts by the Bank of Canada. Some economists see this as giving the central bank more leeway to be patient, rather than rushing to ease. Mortgage Professional+1
But the weak August estimate and continued slack in certain sectors suggest that there is still room for policy accommodation. Statistics Canada+2TD Economics+2
Third quarter outlook: modest growth, not boom
Preliminary tracking suggests Canada’s Q3 (July–September) may show sub-1 % annualized growth — enough to avoid a technical recession (two quarters of negative growth), but still modest by historical standards. Global News+3Mortgage Professional+3TD Economics+3
Risks and caveats
The monthly data are subject to revision, especially as more complete information arrives. Statistics Canada
The rebound could partly reflect seasonality or base effects (e.g. manufacturing retooling, weather, wildfires) rather than a structural recovery. Mortgage Professional+2Statistics Canada+2
